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Julian Diaz-Gutierrez
 
PhD candidate, Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Illinois
juliand3@illinois.edu
 

Welcome to my website!

I am a PhD candidate in Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, expecting to graduate in May 2026. I am on the job market for the 2025-2026 academic year.

I am an applied microeconomist with research interests in health, development, and labor economics, with a secondary field in environmental economics. My research examines how economic shocks—from automation and trade liberalization to immigration policy—affect health outcomes, labor markets, and development in Latin America. My job market paper investigates how increased U.S. industrial automation impacts infant mortality in Mexico through labor market disruptions in export-oriented manufacturing.

Previously, I worked as a Research Analyst at the World Bank in the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as with the Department of Economics at Universidad EAFIT and the Centro de Estudios Regionales del Magdalena Medio (CER).

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Working papers

Automation, Economic Shocks, and Infant Mortality: Evidence from Mexico (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: In this paper, I investigate the impact of increased robotics in the United States on infant mortality rates in Mexico. Using a shift-share design that leverages variations in industrial robot usage and the employment composition of export-oriented maquiladoras, which predominantly employ women, I find that regions with higher exposure to U.S. automation experienced a greater rise in infant mortality rates. The analysis shows that women in manufacturing faced larger job losses than men, leading to reduced household income and access to employer-provided healthcare. This economic strain forced many women into self-employment within manufacturing, reducing time for childcare. Additionally, I present evidence suggesting that automation may increase risky behaviors, such as drinking and smoking, among uninsured women of childbearing age. These findings highlight the complex relationship between technological advancements and public health outcomes, emphasizing the need for policymakers to consider the cross-border effects of automation on global health and employment.
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Trade Effects on Substance Abuse: Evidence from Colombia's Liberalization (Revise and Resubmit at World Development)
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on substance abuse in a developing country context. I study a unilateral reform implemented in Colombia in 2010, which reduced tariffs in the manufacturing and mining sectors. Using a Bartik-style measure of local exposure based on pre-reform employment composition and a continuous-treatment difference-in-differences design, I link tariff cuts to municipality-level rates of substance abuse between 2009 and 2014. The analysis relies on administrative health data covering the universe of hospitalizations and emergency room visits, allowing me to capture both intensive (patients) and extensive (services) margins and to distinguish by substance type. I find that municipalities more exposed to the reform experienced statistically significant increases in substance abuse relative to less exposed areas. The effects are driven by alcohol and cocaine, and are more pronounced among middle-aged individuals and women. Evidence from matched employment data suggests that labor market disruptions are a key mechanism. The findings highlight previously overlooked health externalities of trade policy.
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Deportation and Fertility: Evidence from U.S. Immigration Enforcement in Mexico (with Mary Arends-Kuenning)
Abstract: We estimate the effect of U.S. deportations on fertility in Mexican origin municipalities. We exploit the staggered rollout of the Secure Communities program (2008–2014) across U.S. counties, combined with pre-existing migrant network linkages, to construct a shift-share measure of predicted deportation exposure at the municipality level. A one percentage point increase in the predicted deportee share raises the total fertility rate by 0.165, or 7 percent relative to the sample mean. The effect is concentrated among women aged 20–29 and among women in union. Decomposing by birth order, we find that the increase is driven entirely by higher-order births among partnered women, while first births and union formation rates are unaffected. These results point to a reunification mechanism: deportees—96 percent of whom are men of reproductive age—return to partners with whom they already have children, and the couple has an additional child. Female employment rises in response to the shock but earnings do not, consistent with an added worker effect that does not raise the opportunity cost of childbearing. The fertility and labor supply responses are complementary consequences of the same household shock.
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Publications

Unintended consequences of conservation: Estimating the impact of protected areas on violence in Colombia, 2018, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
(with Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, Merlin M. Hanauer)
Abstract

Protected areas are designed to conserve ecosystems and their services, but the restrictions they impose create the potential for unintended consequences. For instance, poverty advocates have long voiced concerns that protected areas might exacerbate poverty in surrounding communities. Here we examine another potential unintended consequence of protected areas: illegal activities. We use data from Colombia to estimate the impact that protected areas had on violence perpetrated by guerrilla groups. We find protected areas that were established prior to 2002 significantly increased the number of guerrilla attacks in affected municipalities during the surge of violence in the mid-2000s. Our results are robust to the choice of estimator and numerous additional tests. We find evidence that guerrillas were using protected areas as havens to conduct their operations and that our impact estimates are largely driven by protection in the most rural areas.

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