Julian Diaz-Gutierrez

PhD in Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

juliand3@illinois.edu

Welcome to my website!

I am an applied microeconomist. I completed my PhD in Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign in 2026.

My research interests are in health, development, and labor economics, with a secondary field in environmental economics. My work examines how economic shocks—from automation and trade liberalization to immigration enforcement—affect health, fertility, labor markets, and development, with a focus on Latin America. My job market paper investigates how increased U.S. industrial automation impacts infant mortality in Mexico through labor market disruptions in export-oriented manufacturing. Related projects study the effects of Colombia’s trade liberalization on substance abuse and of U.S. deportations on fertility in Mexican origin communities.

Previously, I worked as a Research Analyst at the World Bank in the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as with the Department of Economics at Universidad EAFIT and the Centro de Estudios Regionales del Magdalena Medio (CER).

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Working papers

Automation, Economic Shocks, and Infant Mortality: Evidence from Mexico (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: In this paper, I investigate the impact of increased robotics in the United States on infant mortality rates in Mexico. Using a shift-share design that leverages variations in industrial robot usage and the employment composition of export-oriented maquiladoras, which predominantly employ women, I find that regions with higher exposure to U.S. automation experienced a greater rise in infant mortality rates. The analysis shows that women in manufacturing faced larger job losses than men, leading to reduced household income and access to employer-provided healthcare. This economic strain forced many women into self-employment within manufacturing, reducing time for childcare. Additionally, I present evidence suggesting that automation may increase risky behaviors, such as drinking and smoking, among uninsured women of childbearing age. These findings highlight the complex relationship between technological advancements and public health outcomes, emphasizing the need for policymakers to consider the cross-border effects of automation on global health and employment.

Presented at: 2026: World Bank LAC Chief Economist Office & LACEA Labor Network Conference on Technological Change and Labor Markets in LAC, Washington, DC; Diversity and Human Capital Workshop, University of Exeter. 2025: Midwest International Economic Development Conference, UIUC; International Policy and Development (IPAD) Workshop, UIUC; WELAC (LACEA) Workshop on Gender and Household Economics, Lima, Peru. 2024: International Policy and Development (IPAD) Workshop, UIUC.

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Trade Effects on Substance Abuse: Evidence from Colombia's Liberalization (Revise and Resubmit at World Development)

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on substance abuse. I study Colombia's 2010 unilateral tariff reform (Decree 4114), with immediate cuts concentrated in manufacturing. Using a Bartik-style measure of local tariff exposure and a continuous-treatment difference-in-differences design, I link the reform to municipality-level rates of substance-abuse hospitalizations and emergency-room visits over 2009–2014 from administrative health records. Municipalities more exposed to the tariff cut experienced larger increases in substance abuse. After correcting for multiple testing across the nine ICD-10 categories, multiple-drug use is the only category whose response remains individually robust, with a weaker effect on sedatives; the aggregate effect is present for adults aged 25–44 and is larger and more precisely estimated for males than for females. The evidence is consistent with a labor-market mechanism: the reform contracted formal employment in exposed tradable sectors, and the substance-abuse increase concentrates in the contributory health-insurance regime that covers formal employees. Drug-supply expansion and selective migration are not supported by the data as alternative mechanisms. The findings document downstream health costs of trade reform where social-protection infrastructure is limited.

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Deportation and Fertility: Evidence from U.S. Immigration Enforcement in Mexico (with Mary Arends-Kuenning)

Abstract: We estimate the effect of U.S. deportations on fertility in Mexican origin municipalities. We exploit the staggered rollout of the Secure Communities program (2008–2014) across U.S. counties, combined with pre-existing migrant network linkages, to construct a shift-share measure of predicted deportation exposure at the municipality level. A one percentage point increase in the predicted deportee share raises the total fertility rate by 0.165, or 7 percent relative to the sample mean. The effect is concentrated among women aged 20–29 and among women in union. Decomposing by birth order, we find that the increase is driven entirely by higher-order births among partnered women, while first births and union formation rates are unaffected. These results point to a reunification mechanism: deportees—96 percent of whom are men of reproductive age—return to partners with whom they already have children, and the couple has an additional child. Female employment rises in response to the shock but earnings do not, consistent with an added worker effect that does not raise the opportunity cost of childbearing. The fertility and labor supply responses are complementary consequences of the same household shock.

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Publications

Unintended consequences of conservation: Estimating the impact of protected areas on violence in Colombia, 2018, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

(with Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, Merlin M. Hanauer)

Abstract

Protected areas are designed to conserve ecosystems and their services, but the restrictions they impose create the potential for unintended consequences. For instance, poverty advocates have long voiced concerns that protected areas might exacerbate poverty in surrounding communities. Here we examine another potential unintended consequence of protected areas: illegal activities. We use data from Colombia to estimate the impact that protected areas had on violence perpetrated by guerrilla groups. We find protected areas that were established prior to 2002 significantly increased the number of guerrilla attacks in affected municipalities during the surge of violence in the mid-2000s. Our results are robust to the choice of estimator and numerous additional tests. We find evidence that guerrillas were using protected areas as havens to conduct their operations and that our impact estimates are largely driven by protection in the most rural areas.

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